Ray Flowers has a warning for fantasy baseball owners:

Do not draft Jose Abreu expecting an improvement on, or repeat of, his 2014 season.

As a rookie in 2014, Abreu was named to the All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger Award, was voted Rookie of the Year, and finished fourth in AL MVP voting. He ended the year with a .317 batting average, 36 home runs and 107 RBI in 145 games.

In 2015? Flowers, a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, is predicting a worst-case scenario of something in the neighborhood of Adam LaRoche, and a best-case scenario well off his 2014 campaign.

“I think worse-case scenario is .285, 25 home runs, 90 RBI,” Flowers said. “And I think that a fair-minded person looking at Abreu’s skills would say .285, 30, 100. I think that is totally fair.”

Flowers said because of some of Abreu’s advanced statistics, he wouldn’t draft him in the top 25.

“Of the 11 guys that hit 30 home runs last year, Abreu’s flyball ratio was 19 percent lower than any other guy on the list,” Flowers pointed out. “Chris Carter, for example, was over 51 percent.”

Flowers was also bothered by Abreu’s sky-high BABIP (.360), home run-to-fly ball ratio (26.9 percent), and groundball ratio, which exceeded 50 percent over the last two months of the season.

“Anyone that sits there and tells me Abreu hit .370 in this month, he hit .350 in the second half, his approach changed in the second half, he was so much better; I haven’t heard one person address the fact that the last two months of the season, more than 50 percent of the balls he hit went into the ground,” Flowers said. “You simply can’t hit 35 home runs doing that. It’s impossible.”

Where do you think Abreu deserves to be selected in 2015 fantasy baseball drafts? Tweet your thoughts @SiriusXMFantasy.

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