Free fights on a Wednesday!

Ultimate Fight Night 29 in Sao Paolo, Brazil, airs Wednesday night at 5 pm ET on Fox Sports 1. The card features several fighters looking to push down the door into the top seven of their respective weight classes.

SiriusXM Fight Club picks a few winners based off the Las Vegas betting odds:

T.J. DILLASHAW vs. RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO – Bantamweight

The 27-year-old Dillashaw (8-1, 4-1 UFC) is a hell of a prospect, but lacks the experience and size of Assuncao. This line should be closer to minus-150.

Assuncao, winner of four straight UFC fights since his move down from featherweight, possesses a more varied game on his feet. If Dillashaw can’t get Assuncao (20-4, 4-1 UFC) to his back, the American’s lack of head movement when he’s standing could come back to bite him.

PICK: ASSUNCAO +245

FABIO MALDONADO vs. JOEY BELTRAN – Light-Heavyweight

Their bodies aren’t chiseled, they may not be pretty, but they’ll put on a show in what shapes up to be a slugfest. There is no speed advantage on either side and there might not be a power advantage, but there is an edge when it comes to the chin. Beltran (14-8, 3-5 UFC) is a blockhead who should be able to withstand anything big landed by Maldonado (19-6, 2-3 UFC). Beltran’s also shown the ability to slow down an onslaught in the past by taking a fight to the ground.

PICK: BELTRAN +145

ILIARDE SANTOS vs. CHRIS CARIASO – Flyweight

If Cariaso (14-5, 4-3 UFC) comes in aggressively, this is a Fight of the Night candidate. But that’s been an issue with Cariaso: Since his slugfest at 135 pounds with Michael MacDonald, he’s fought at a more measured pace. It’s resulted in a pedestrian 3-2 record since, including four decisions.

His last time out, Santos, a plus-320 underdog, surprised many, including his opponent Ian McCall. Santos went toe-to-toe with one of the top four fighters in the flyweight division and lost via decision.

Santos (27-8-1, 1-1 UFC) has enough of an edge to jump on this inexpensive favorite price. Don’t forget to factor in home-cage advantage as well for the Brazilian.

PICK: SANTOS -120

OTHER FIGHTS

  • Demian Maia is our choice to pick up a decision victory over Jake Shields, but the minus-245 price in a fight that’ll go the distance is too risky.
  • The fact that Thiago Silva missed weight Tuesday makes a minus-290 play on the Brazilian a ridiculous wager. That said, he should win the fight. After a long layoff for Matt Hamill (last fought in September 2012), who knows what you get from the 37-year-old. Silva’s heavy hands are a terrible matchup for Hamill, who refuses to play to his strength in the wrestling game.
  • Keep an eye on Mike Pierce and welterweight Rousimar Palhares. The Brazilian Palhares is a vicious submission practitioner, but he’s also a mental powder keg. If he stays under control, Palhares could be a nice ‘dog play at +275.

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